A recession is coming

 

I predict that despite positive economic indicators, a recession is coming.   Why?  2 words… Tech Layoffs. 

“Tech” has always been the canary in the coalmine when it comes to the economy.  Most technical workers are not producers, meaning they don’t directly sell or generate revenue.  Tech workers  support, develop, test and build solutions.  That makes them corporate overheard.   Tech workers are the last to be hired in good times and the first to get cut when C-suites smell bad times on the horizon.  And companies are cutting IT workers by the thousands.  Google, Facebook, Riot Games, TikTok, Amazon, Spotify, all slashed IT workers.  A business advisory from DBO’s CFO Outlook survey (https://insights.bdo.com/2024-BDO-Technology-CFO-Outlook-Survey.html) found that many CFO plan on continuing to downsize through 2024.

Since the tech downsizing actually started Q4 of2023,  I predict a recession end of 2024 to  mid 2025. 

To  those of you who thought "tech" was a safe, stable place to work.. .hardy.  Every industry has ups and downs and goes in cycles.  The last big tech collapse was the "dot com bomb".  When the internet first became popular in the 1990's, companies flush with VC cash scrambled to build web presence with the belief "if you build it, they (customers) will come".  Well, that didn't happen and we some some of the most spectacular flameouts in industry history.  Once it became clear that investment wasn't going to pan out, VC's stop throwing cash at web companies with burn rates and most of the tech industry went unemployed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble 

Just saying, only things that people need which requires your hands on is a stable, recession proof business.  Think plumbing, HVAC, electrical auto-repair...yep, trades.  Not glorious gigs, but if you got the skillz. you always, always have a job.  There is no shame in a good days work. 

That's BTs tip for the day.

As always, keep you’re minds open, and your wallets closed.

The problem with Disqualifying Trump

 

So it's been a few years since my last post - like 9?!?! holy shat.  Over the past almost decade there's been enough things I've predicted that have come true.  It's time I document them so others can't claim credit. enjoy.

The effort to push Trump off the ballot making him ineligible for office could result in seriously disastrous repercussions for Democrats.  Yes, Biden is at record low approval numbers, and for all his personal and legal baggage, Trump is polling ahead of the pack. The problem with polls is, well  they are polls.

Elections for the past 30 years or so have been decided by independents.  Hard core democrats will vote for who’s ever on the democratic ticket, and hard-core republicans will vote for who’s ever on the republican ticket.  Independents vote for who they hate the least.  Independents don’t bother themselves much with polls and they are a fickle bunch.  They tend to have byers remorse. which is why we usually see midterm elections not favor the previous winners. As much as independents dislike Biden, midterm independents did not favor the GOP.  Point to Trumpism, anti-women’s rights agendas by the GOP, or just an all-around growth of right-wing fascism, independents did not line up behind Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

Trump taking the Iowa primary (btw, Iowa does not have a stellar prediction record), the 2024 matchup looks like Trump VS Biden part deux.  When push comes to shove, independents, despite polling numbers and their own best interests will get in the voting both and push the Biden button.  If the election comes down to Trump VS Biden, the Republicans will be slaughtered.  It happened before, it will happen again. This time, It will be the end of Trumpism.

Let’s shake things up a bit.  Let’s say that SCOTUS rules individual States can keep Trump off the ballot.  This opens an opportunity for some other non-Trump player to enter the game.  In a Biden vs non-Trump matchup, the Dems are in trouble.  Independents will likely vote “other”, meaning not Biden, and the Democrats will get slaughtered in the elections.

You read it here first – keep your minds open and wallets closed.

Star wars Vii – A new let down.

This weekend I saw the JJ Abrahams tory line of the new Star Wars reboot.

I have to say, it was better than the silly storyline Lucas took it.  As someone who saw the original 1977 move named “Star Wars” in theaters, opening weekend, I call that movie “Star Wars”, not “a new hope”, just Star Wars.

But my disappointment in the new film as that it is exact same movie I saw when I was 14.  Really.  Same plot with the characters shuffled a bit.  Even the new Death World – the rebooted version of the Death Star – has X-Wing fighters going through all sorts of maneuvers to shot a vulnerable spot on a planet sized weapon.  I literally found myself looking around at the audience saying to myself – “I’ve seen this”…

I guess if you’ve never seen the original movie, it’s good.  If you have seen the original and want to avoid a haggard Princess Leia, catch it in a few years on Netflix.  Carrie Fisher is 59, Harrison is 73 – He looks younger than her…All those years of drug use and semi-sanity have taken their toll Carrie. It’s kind of sad. 

Anyway, nowhere the hype the internet is exploding about.  I walked away feeling let down.   As usual, keep your minds open and your wallets closed. 

FoxNews is Killing America

There’s an old saying, United We Stand, Divided we fall.

Foxnews is the ultimate divisor.  Every single front page top line story is dedicated to smearing Democrats.  Now, weather the story is true or exaggerated the purpose is whipping up the loyalist base in frenzy for some half brained attempt to sway public opinion against Democrats.  Perusing the commentary is like listening to a kindergarteners arguments closing debates with the bastardized term ‘LIBS!’. No real substance, just expletives.  Now I’ve read somewhere that using FoxNews as your only source of information makes you stupid…though I would argue the stupidity is within those who seek FoxNews as their sole information regime.

Since the purpose of FoxNews is to divide, and divided we fall, the simple purpose of Foxnews is the downfall of America.  Spread distrust, don’t work together, spread FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), create enemies within the American people and win political offices at any cost.

No wonder the US has slipped to 33 for infant mortality, 26 in education, 46^th in freedom of the press.

Congratulations fox, well done..

Tim Armstrong – AOL’s mega rich corporate greedmeister.

AOL decided to stop matching 401K contributions.

Why?  Tim claimed 2 women had babies that cost $1million each.  He said the cost of Obama care is $7.1 million and he needs to pass the pain onto the company.

It needs to be noted that Tim's 'compensation' went from $3.2M in 2011 to $12.07M in 2012.

That’s right.  His raise $9million dollar raise exceed the so called Obamacare increase by $2million dollars.  Anybody wanna try and blame the babies now?  Or should I ask, who's the baby?

This douche bag is just another example of corporate greed run amok. The rich 1% continue to pull right from the mouths of workers.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Keep your minds open and your wallets closed

Linux failed the desktop

The looming end of life for Windows XP on April 8^th has me re-evaluating my computing OS situation.  I have an HP tc440 note book – it has the flipping / rotating screen with a full keyboard and touchscreen.  I find it the perfect footprint.  It does unfortunately run Xp. 

I am a techie by trade. I’ve run/installed/supported a Linux farm at the office for almost a decade (debian).  At home I ran Ubuntu desktop on ‘the kids’ computer because I got tired of the monthly format and reload required to clear non-stop virus infestations on Windows machines. End point security didn’t really seem to matter.  Several pre-teen’s / teens using a computer ensured regular infections. Using Linux stopped infections.

I’ve run Unity for several years – on the kids pc – and I have to say, I hate it.  I refuse to use it for my personal PC.  In my desire to continue using my beloved HP, I tried Linux Mint. Since my HP doesn’t have a built in CD / DVD drive, I created a bootable flash drive with Mint and installed.  Pretty much everything worked, wireless, touchscreen… everything! I chose Mint because according to my research, Mint has the largest user community after Ubuntu…. And I won’t support the Unity abomination.

 However – there’s 3 annoying issues

1 – There’s a message on the screen before the GUI starts about invalid user.  From the research, this is a debian bug.  As far as I can tell, it doesn’t affect anything.  I’ll ignore it.

2 – There’s no support for Netflix?!?  This surprised me, as it would be similar problem with any version of Linux.   According to posts on the internet, this is because Netflix requires Microsoft Silverlight, which is not available on Linux.  I really, really have to say I don’t believe this at all.  I have Netflix on both my android phone and my iPad.  Both have a Linux connection.  There’s no excuse not to run Netflix. 

3- This is the killer -.  After the initial install of Linux Mint, I performed an update…. The update killed the OS.  No boot, just a brick.  I re-installed Mint and it worked, however I didn’t perform the update.

Issue number 2 makes the device unusable for the majority of my entertainment.  Issue number 3 makes the device just plain untrustworthy. 

Now I’m 50 years old.  As I said I’m a techie.  I’ve been a programmer by trade - longer than I want to think about.  I do network support, server support and mange a team.  I have kids, a wife, home interests.. I don’t have the time or patience to futz with computer problems.  When I was younger, I enjoyed the hack to make it work.  That was 20years ago.   Now it annoys me.  I just want it to work.

After 20 years of Linux development there needs to be some level of maturity.  It needs to just work without having to hack it for the casual user to accept it.   unfortunately, Linux doesn't pass that bar.
I’m done with Linux at home.  It’s nothing more than a toy for hackers who want to tweak.  For people who just want their stuff to work, stick with Microsoft of Apple.  Sorry.

More FOX Lies - FUD!

FoxNoNews continues it's bottom dwelling truth bending with another inaccurate story.
See the picture -  This was taken from the FRONT page of their propaganda website.
Notice the last few words 'going against the hospital'.

This is COMPLETELY FALSE.  The doctors completely agree the fetus is NOT VIABLE. However, due to knuckle dragging, back woods, ignorant, bible thumping legal process in Texas, removing life support to a brain dead pregnant woman is illegal.  That's right, Texas, the State that refuses abortions, then refuses to support unwanted children with any social programs removes choice from adults.

Kudos bone heads, kudos.

Maybe blatantly ignorant behavior like this may shine some light up the backwater rectum of the US - Texas.

Till then, keep your minds open, and your wallets closed.