A recession is coming

 

I predict that despite positive economic indicators, a recession is coming.   Why?  2 words… Tech Layoffs. 

“Tech” has always been the canary in the coalmine when it comes to the economy.  Most technical workers are not producers, meaning they don’t directly sell or generate revenue.  Tech workers  support, develop, test and build solutions.  That makes them corporate overheard.   Tech workers are the last to be hired in good times and the first to get cut when C-suites smell bad times on the horizon.  And companies are cutting IT workers by the thousands.  Google, Facebook, Riot Games, TikTok, Amazon, Spotify, all slashed IT workers.  A business advisory from DBO’s CFO Outlook survey (https://insights.bdo.com/2024-BDO-Technology-CFO-Outlook-Survey.html) found that many CFO plan on continuing to downsize through 2024.

Since the tech downsizing actually started Q4 of2023,  I predict a recession end of 2024 to  mid 2025. 

To  those of you who thought "tech" was a safe, stable place to work.. .hardy.  Every industry has ups and downs and goes in cycles.  The last big tech collapse was the "dot com bomb".  When the internet first became popular in the 1990's, companies flush with VC cash scrambled to build web presence with the belief "if you build it, they (customers) will come".  Well, that didn't happen and we some some of the most spectacular flameouts in industry history.  Once it became clear that investment wasn't going to pan out, VC's stop throwing cash at web companies with burn rates and most of the tech industry went unemployed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble 

Just saying, only things that people need which requires your hands on is a stable, recession proof business.  Think plumbing, HVAC, electrical auto-repair...yep, trades.  Not glorious gigs, but if you got the skillz. you always, always have a job.  There is no shame in a good days work. 

That's BTs tip for the day.

As always, keep you’re minds open, and your wallets closed.

The problem with Disqualifying Trump

 

So it's been a few years since my last post - like 9?!?! holy shat.  Over the past almost decade there's been enough things I've predicted that have come true.  It's time I document them so others can't claim credit. enjoy.

The effort to push Trump off the ballot making him ineligible for office could result in seriously disastrous repercussions for Democrats.  Yes, Biden is at record low approval numbers, and for all his personal and legal baggage, Trump is polling ahead of the pack. The problem with polls is, well  they are polls.

Elections for the past 30 years or so have been decided by independents.  Hard core democrats will vote for who’s ever on the democratic ticket, and hard-core republicans will vote for who’s ever on the republican ticket.  Independents vote for who they hate the least.  Independents don’t bother themselves much with polls and they are a fickle bunch.  They tend to have byers remorse. which is why we usually see midterm elections not favor the previous winners. As much as independents dislike Biden, midterm independents did not favor the GOP.  Point to Trumpism, anti-women’s rights agendas by the GOP, or just an all-around growth of right-wing fascism, independents did not line up behind Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

Trump taking the Iowa primary (btw, Iowa does not have a stellar prediction record), the 2024 matchup looks like Trump VS Biden part deux.  When push comes to shove, independents, despite polling numbers and their own best interests will get in the voting both and push the Biden button.  If the election comes down to Trump VS Biden, the Republicans will be slaughtered.  It happened before, it will happen again. This time, It will be the end of Trumpism.

Let’s shake things up a bit.  Let’s say that SCOTUS rules individual States can keep Trump off the ballot.  This opens an opportunity for some other non-Trump player to enter the game.  In a Biden vs non-Trump matchup, the Dems are in trouble.  Independents will likely vote “other”, meaning not Biden, and the Democrats will get slaughtered in the elections.

You read it here first – keep your minds open and wallets closed.