A recession is coming

 

I predict that despite positive economic indicators, a recession is coming.   Why?  2 words… Tech Layoffs. 

“Tech” has always been the canary in the coalmine when it comes to the economy.  Most technical workers are not producers, meaning they don’t directly sell or generate revenue.  Tech workers  support, develop, test and build solutions.  That makes them corporate overheard.   Tech workers are the last to be hired in good times and the first to get cut when C-suites smell bad times on the horizon.  And companies are cutting IT workers by the thousands.  Google, Facebook, Riot Games, TikTok, Amazon, Spotify, all slashed IT workers.  A business advisory from DBO’s CFO Outlook survey (https://insights.bdo.com/2024-BDO-Technology-CFO-Outlook-Survey.html) found that many CFO plan on continuing to downsize through 2024.

Since the tech downsizing actually started Q4 of2023,  I predict a recession end of 2024 to  mid 2025. 

To  those of you who thought "tech" was a safe, stable place to work.. .hardy.  Every industry has ups and downs and goes in cycles.  The last big tech collapse was the "dot com bomb".  When the internet first became popular in the 1990's, companies flush with VC cash scrambled to build web presence with the belief "if you build it, they (customers) will come".  Well, that didn't happen and we some some of the most spectacular flameouts in industry history.  Once it became clear that investment wasn't going to pan out, VC's stop throwing cash at web companies with burn rates and most of the tech industry went unemployed.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble 

Just saying, only things that people need which requires your hands on is a stable, recession proof business.  Think plumbing, HVAC, electrical auto-repair...yep, trades.  Not glorious gigs, but if you got the skillz. you always, always have a job.  There is no shame in a good days work. 

That's BTs tip for the day.

As always, keep you’re minds open, and your wallets closed.