The problem with Disqualifying Trump

 

So it's been a few years since my last post - like 9?!?! holy shat.  Over the past almost decade there's been enough things I've predicted that have come true.  It's time I document them so others can't claim credit. enjoy.

The effort to push Trump off the ballot making him ineligible for office could result in seriously disastrous repercussions for Democrats.  Yes, Biden is at record low approval numbers, and for all his personal and legal baggage, Trump is polling ahead of the pack. The problem with polls is, well  they are polls.

Elections for the past 30 years or so have been decided by independents.  Hard core democrats will vote for who’s ever on the democratic ticket, and hard-core republicans will vote for who’s ever on the republican ticket.  Independents vote for who they hate the least.  Independents don’t bother themselves much with polls and they are a fickle bunch.  They tend to have byers remorse. which is why we usually see midterm elections not favor the previous winners. As much as independents dislike Biden, midterm independents did not favor the GOP.  Point to Trumpism, anti-women’s rights agendas by the GOP, or just an all-around growth of right-wing fascism, independents did not line up behind Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

Trump taking the Iowa primary (btw, Iowa does not have a stellar prediction record), the 2024 matchup looks like Trump VS Biden part deux.  When push comes to shove, independents, despite polling numbers and their own best interests will get in the voting both and push the Biden button.  If the election comes down to Trump VS Biden, the Republicans will be slaughtered.  It happened before, it will happen again. This time, It will be the end of Trumpism.

Let’s shake things up a bit.  Let’s say that SCOTUS rules individual States can keep Trump off the ballot.  This opens an opportunity for some other non-Trump player to enter the game.  In a Biden vs non-Trump matchup, the Dems are in trouble.  Independents will likely vote “other”, meaning not Biden, and the Democrats will get slaughtered in the elections.

You read it here first – keep your minds open and wallets closed.